(BELOW) SCATTERED T’STORMS WILL POP TODAY:

(BELOW) A GREAT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP:

(BELOW) ONE LARGE HEAVY, SEVERE COMPLEX OF T’STORMS, POSSIBLY TWO, MAY GRAZE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY &/OR TONIGHT:

(BELOW) DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE WITH SUNSHINE LATE SATURDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS OF 38 TO 44 DEGREES:

(BELOW) SEVERE T’STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

(BELOW) 80s WILL RETURN WITH THE SEVERE THREAT:

(BELOW) Scattered t’storms will pop this afternoon:

(BELOW) Given the amount of instability, any storm that develops could turn severe for a while with strong winds & large hail. Though the lack of any specific, strong focusing mechanism will prevent widespread t’storm organization:

(BELOW IN FIRST IMAGE) The intense instability (in yellow) will promote the development of a cluster of severe storms (BELOW IN SECOND IMAGE) that will race across Missouri later this evening. This storm cluster will be boosted by the stronger wind about 15,000′ up or the jet streak (in rust/red color) moving into northwest Missouri
(BELOW IN THIRD IMAGE):



(BELOW) The cluster will weaken as it moves eastward away from the stronger wind support aloft, but may hold on long enough to promote severe threat for strong winds along & west of the Wabash River overnight. (NOTICE THE INSTABILITY HOW IT WANES EAST OF THE WABASH OVERNIGHT):

(BELOW) After more widespread overnight/early A.M. rains Friday, a few more showers & t’storms will pop Friday afternoon:

(BELOW) A few showers & t’storms may linger into Saturday (mainly in the morning), but notice how those heavy rains in pink & gray stay to our south with their associated flooding:

(BELOW) PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY:

(BELOW) PROJECTED WEDNESDAY INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO, WABASH, &/OR MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS…..TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT TO OUTLINE SPECIFIC AREA:

(BELOW) PROJECTED FRIDAY RAINFALL TOTALS:

(BELOW) AGAIN, A NICE INSTABILITY FIELD WILL ENCOMPASS THE OHIO, WABASH & MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, THOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BEST INSTABILITY, DYNAMICS & CONVERGENCE, THUS A SPECIFIC THREAT AREA IS VAGUE CURRENTLY:

(BELOW) IT IS PROJECTED TO WARM UP NICELY INTO THE 80s AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM & COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS:

(BELOW) THE TREND OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS HAS BEEN TO FORM A PRETTY POTENT SURFACE LOW & COLD FRONT OVER IOWA FOR MONDAY. THROUGH THE DAY, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT SLICLING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE SEVERE PARAMETERS IN PLACE, IT APPEARS A SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE IN THE MIDWEST AT SOME POINT CENTERED AROUND MONDAY. THAT SAID:
(BELOW) MONDAY A.M.:

(BELOW) MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON:

(BELOW) MONDAY EVENING:

(BELOW) INSTABILITY MONDAY A.M.:

(BELOW) MONDAY P.M. INSTABILITY

(BELOW) A CORE OF HIGH WINDS (IN RED) AT 15,000′ ARE PROJECTED TO PASS, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LIFT & T’STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDWEST MONDAY:

(BELOW) Sunday Rainfall……………

(BELOW) Wednesday Rainfall…………

(BELOW) Friday Rainfall…………..

BELOW: SUNDAY 4 P.M. EASTERN

BELOW: MONDAY 7 A.M. EASTERN

BELOW: MONDAY 7 P.M. EASTERN

BELOW: INSTABILITY AS THOSE STORMS & THAT RAIN ARRIVES…..THERE IS ENOUGH TO PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY WEST OF THE WABASH RIVER

BELOW: INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT, SO ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE T’STORMS CONFINED TO LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING UNTIL 12 A.M.

BELOW: TUESDAY 1 A.M. EASTERN

BELOW: TUESDAY 4 A.M. EASTERN

BELOW: TUESDAY 7 A.M. EASTERN

BELOW: TUESDAY 1 P.M. EASTERN

BELOW: MONDAY-TUESDAY RAINFALL TOTALS

BELOW: 35 TO 40 DEGREES #1) WEDNESDAY & #2) THURSDAY MORNING! ON IMAGE #2, NOTICE THE BLACK FREEZING LINE (32 DEGREES) IN NORTHERN INDIANA!


BELOW: COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN/STORMS

BELOW: 70s RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH

BELOW AFTER MORNING RAINS END, THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY OF THE YEAR DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON

BELOW: A CORE OF VERY STRONG WINDS AT 15,000 FEET WILL PASS (NOTICE REDS & PURPLE). WE WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THIS CORE OF WINDS CALLED A JET STREAK. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE T’STORM POTENTIAL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING

BELOW: IT APPEARS A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS & A FEW TORNADOES

A GOOD AMOUNT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL WITH SEVERAL OTHER STORM SYSTEMS TO START MAY…..HERE ARE THE RAINFALL PROJECTIONS FOR MAY 1-6

(BELOW) RAIN & STORMS SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY:

(BELOW) TORRENTIAL, SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT:

(BELOW) RAIN & STORMS ARE PROJECTED TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY (see 2nd image below) TO WARRANT SLIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY WEST OF THE WABASH RIVER DUE TO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER/LIGHTNING:


(BELOW) THE INSTABILITY WILL WANE MONDAY NIGHT, SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH, BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN RIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (see in second image below):


(BELOW) IT APPEARS THE RAIN WILL BE OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY, DRY & COOL:

(BELOW) RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM:

(BELOW) NEXT ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS COULD BE INTERESTING. RAIN/STORMS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT (1st Image), THAT LIFTS NORTH & BATHS US IN VERY HUMID, WARM AIR FOR FRIDAY (2nd Image) WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY I HAVE SEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR:



(BELOW) RAINFALL TOTALS MAY 1-6:

(BELOW) It appears a secondary warm front or warm surge is triggering a few sprinkles & this mid-level cloudiness today…expect my sun later this afternoon. Then, tomorrow & Sunday, some high & mid cloudiness may spill in from all of the heavy rain & storms to our west, but expect a nice, windy, very warm weekend


(BELOW) PROJECTED RADAR IMAGE MONDAY, 4 P.M. EASTERN; The trend is to bring the rain & t’storms ever closer for Sunday. I am holding back pending further inverstigation, but will bring in showers & t’storms by Monday afternoon

(BELOW) INSTABILITY FOR #1) WEEKEND & FOR #2 EARLY WORKWEEK; Despite most of the abundant instability for severe t’storms setting up just west of us for the weekend, enough my last into Monday to allow some severe t’storms to hold together west of the Wabash River


(BELOW) RAINFALL TOTALS FOR EARLY WEEK SYSTEM

(BELOW) RAINFALL TOTALS FOR FIRST WEEK OF MAY

(BELOW) Rainfall Outlook April 25-May 6
“A” & DARKER GREEN is Much Above Normal Rainfall

(BELOW) FEW SHOWERS & T’SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES:
http://www.wthitv.com/subindex/weather
(BELOW) 80-85 FRIDAY-MONDAY, LOWS 60-65, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS & SUNSHINE EACH DAY

(BELOW) FLOODING MIDWESTERN RAINS LATE WEEKEND-MID NEXT WEEK….BUT NOT SO MUCH HERE….THESE ARE RAINFALL TOTALS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY…SEE HOW WE DODGE MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN

(BELOW) NOTICE #1) THE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE PLAINS THAT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE T’STORM CLUSTERS & #2) HOW THAT INSTABILITY WANES AS THE FRONT FINALLY PICKS UP SPEED & PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY……THIS MEANS NOT ONLY MAY WE DODGE THE HEAVY RAINS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER, AS WELL


(BELOW) AS WE TALKED ABOUT LASTNIGHT DURING THE WEATHERCASTS, IT APPEARS A COOLER, WET PATTERN MAY SET UP FOR EARLY MAY…..THAT IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY…..NOTICE THE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVING TO START MAY, WHICH COULD BE CALLED DOGWOOD WINTER

(BELOW) THIS IS A CONCERN NOT ONLY FOR FARMERS, BUT ALL RESIDENTS, AS THE HEAVY RAIN CORRIDOR WILL SET UP RIGHT ACROSS THE WABASH & OHIO VALLEYS TO START MAY…..THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER & WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG IT, PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS

(BELOW) PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY

(BELOW) I WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A COUPLE 35- TO 40-DEGREE NIGHTS IN EARLY MAY FROM DOGWOOD WINTER

BELOW: PATCHY FROST TONIGHT WITH LOWS OF 32-40 (MOST OF THE AREA NEAR 35…..COLDEST FAR EAST & WARMEST FAR SOUTHWEST IN ILLINOIS)

(BELOW) WARM FRONT WILL PASS TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS MIXING WITH SUNSHINE (GREEN IS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS)…..AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE

(BELOW) 80-85 FRIDAY-MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE & STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS…….OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT EVEN DROP BELOW 60 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, DUE TO THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS

(BELOW) FLOODING RAINS & SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE PLAINS LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK

(BELOW) NOTICE THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR T’STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND

(BELOW) NOTICE HOW #1) INSTABILITY WANES AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY ADVANCES TO US & #2) HOW MOST OF THE RAIN FALLS IN THE PLAINS & WE LOOK TO MISS THE FLOODING WITH UP TO 0.50″ OF RAIN FORECAST HERE BY MID-WEEK


(BELOW) IT APPEARS DOGWOOD WINTER WILL ARRIVE TO START MAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW NIGHTS IN THE 30s. DOGWOOD WINTER IS TYPICAL A COOL PERIOD IN INDIANA & ILLINOIS THAT OCCURS WHEN THE NATIVE FLOWERING DOGWOODS ARE IN FULL BLOSSOM

BELOW: Rainfall, heavy at times, with embedded t’storms will continue to close in on the Valley & become dominant after 9 p.m.