As we head into our Sunday night and wake up for our early morning commute, rain will be moving in with our next wave of energy. A low pressure will kick eastward and drag a cold front with colder air behind it in for the start of our new week. A very basic idea looks like this…
This front is sparking rain showers and thunderstorms as our Sunday night approaches. We will go from daytime highs in the 70s today to highs really dropping into the 40s mostly for our Monday. As this front approaches, it will push that warm air up and cool off, condense, and fall as rain and even cause some friction for lightning. We can see this line move in late tonight. Timing is looking to be near midnight.
The heavy rain and thunderstorm chances will be in front of the cold front and along the front as seen above (11 PM). More widespread rain will take over as the morning hours move in, and throughout the day. Expect the rain showers to be on and off for your Monday. Get the rain gear ready!
This is what one of our models is painting for rainfall potential through the night and into Monday evening…
I was personally adding up to around .6″ of precipitation totals with more possible around the Effingham, Richland and Cumberland Illinois counties.
Temperatures really fall behind this front, here is a look at our 7day. Keep in mind our “High” tomorrow will occur at midnight and fall through the day. The low will probably happen late Monday night then.
Expect temperatures around the mid 40s for your Monday late afternoon and evening. Have a great start to your work week and stay dry and warm! JD
After seeing the warmest day so far of 2014 on Thursday, mild air will continue to bring above average temperatures to the Valley throughout the weekend.
Today: Thicker cloud cover is departing our skies and more sunshine will filter in for our afternoon. Temperatures won’t be quite as warm as yesterday, but still above average topping out near 70. Light winds around 5 mph from the west.
Tonight: A mostly clear sky for tonight with lows near 45.
Saturday:Warmer air returns for Saturday. In fact, Saturday is looking like the warmest day so far this year with highs near 77 under a partly cloudy sky.
Sunday: Our next weather system approaches Sunday bringing our next chance to see rain and storms, especially during the second half of the day. It’s shaping up to look like a mainly dry day overall. Sunday stays warm with highs near 76.
Extended Outlook:Rain chances continue through Monday night and are quickly followed by a major drop in temps with highs in the 50s and upper 40s for the first part of next week. By mid-week, we begin a dry pattern with a warming trend.
Today:A rainy and stormy pattern begins today for the Wabash Valley as a series of weather systems move through. Scattered rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day with highs near 59.
Tonight: Rain will be likely through the overnight, becoming heavy at times. A Flood Watch goes into effect for the entire Wabash Valley at 8 p.m. EDT this evening lasting through Friday morning.
Tomorrow: Heaviest rainfall will occur throughout the day on Thursday. A warm front will lift through Thursday morning bringing much warmer temps with highs near 70, but also bringing the potential of strong to severe storms to the Valley mainly Thursday afternoon and again overnight. The primary threats include heavy rain leading to flooding and damaging winds.
Extended Outlook: An upwards of 3 to 4 inches of rain will be possible through Friday morning before rain chances diminish into Friday afternoon as it turns much cooler. We do have a dry weekend, but it will be cooler with highs in the 50s.
A shift in conditions for Sunday as a Low Pressure System travels in for the afternoon. Sunny and comfortable temperatures will flip-flop with cloudy and cooler temperatures for the day (Lower 30s). As of tonight that moisture is just to the west of Illinois and is tracking eastward with the Wabash Valley in the pathway.
More clouds will develop with colder air spilling in by the time we reach our afternoon. Snow and rain are in the books for our Sunday, but the more and more I look at the updated models, the less and less chance of snow I see arising. Part of that is due to the tracking of the system, but also to do with a high pressure sliding in from the north which will help push that precipitation south and dry things up slightly.
I haven’t completely eliminated the chance for snow though for our Sunday. The southern region of the Wabash Valley has a greater chance for snow, it will be light snowfall accumulation or up to an inch possible. Temperatures will definitely drop though for your Sunday and rebounding into the 40s for St. Patrick’s Day.
Today: We’ll enjoy one last spring-like day across the Valley before big changes roll in during the overnight. Daytime highs will top out near 68° this afternoon with partly cloudy skies. Southern portions of the Valley could potentially see that 70° mark!
Tonight: A low pressure system will slide through just to our south during the overnight bringing rain showers and a few thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. Winds pick up from the northwest gusting up to 35 mph during the overnight and up to 40 mph during the day on Wednesday.
Wednesday: Temperatures drop back near 32 tonight and will continue to fall throughout the day on Wednesday. This will cause rain to mix with snow in the morning hours and precipitation will change over into all snow by the afternoon. Light snow accumulations will be possible.
Wednesday Afternoon/Evening: Snow exits heading into Wednesday evening and it turns much colder with lows near 13.
An expansive winter storm will move in tonight as a low pressure system travels eastward. This low will deepen and become stronger as it pushes east and will allow for conditions to become more active as your Saturday night ticks in.
Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all counties in the Wabash Valley until 7 AM EST Monday.
TIMING: of this system has been consistent and looks to nose in by our late Saturday night around midnight EST. Sleet and/or a few snow flurries could start even a few hours before midnight or a little after.
Storm Team 10 Futurecast keeps a steady stream of snow in place for your Sunday morning and throughout most of Sunday. I believe early Sunday and again through the early evening is where we will see our most active and moderate to heavy snowfall.
The snow/sleet line stays around the US-50 corridor with the heaviest of the snow near the I-70 track. It looks at this time that the system will be mostly out of our region by early Monday morning.
HOW MUCH: This winter storm and the tracking has changed quite a lot through the last few days. This is the most current precipitation potential outlook as the models have updated through our Saturday. Once again the heaviest of the snowfall looks to be around the I-70 corridor 4″ – 7″ with minor ice accumulation. There may be locally heavier neighborhoods that might accumulate up to 8″+. As you travel further south, the better chance for more ice, snowfall totals could push up to 5″. Depending on the mixture line, those southern totals will fluctuate.
Stay tuned to Storm Team 10 as we will have updates through the morning and tomorrow afternoon.