BELOW: RAINFALL TOTALS BY TUESDAY

BELOW: PROJECTED RADAR USING NAM MODELING FOR MONDAY, 7 A.M. INDIANA TIME

BELOW: MONDAY 1 P.M. INDIANA TIME

BELOW: MONDAY 7 P.M. INDIANA TIME

BELOW: TUESDAY 7 A.M. INDIANA TIME

BELOW: TUESDAY 1 P.M. INDIANA TIME

BELOW: TUESDAY 7 P.M. INDIANA TIME

BELOW: WEDNESDAY 7 A.M. INDIANA TIME

BELOW: NEAR 32 TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS

WALL OF WARMTH ARRIVES LATE WEEK WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2009, THUS FAR

BELOW: APRIL 29-MAY 4 LOOKS VERY ACTIVE TO OUR NORTH WITH SEVERE T’STORMS. THIS IS PROJECTED INSTABILITY FOR APRIL 29

BELOW: IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT WILL STALL & WAVES OF SEVERE T’STORMS WILL FORM ON IT APRIL 29-MAY 4. THIS WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM, DRY WEATHER, HOWEVER, DISASTROUS FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS & NORTHERN INDIANA. EVENTUALLY, THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT US BY MAY 5

BELOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY MAY

With a mix of rain and snow along with gusty wind, this is not what we usually think of when we think about April.  The entire week looks less than stellar.

RAIN ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON…….COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT…….Few Showers May Linger Into Friday a.m…..Low Gray Clouds May Linger Into Friday Afternoon with Strong Northwest Winds…………

FRIDAY NIGHT FREEZE OF 25-30 DEGREES LIKELY………

RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON……Few Showers May Linger Into Monday with Low, Gray Clouds & Strong, Chily Winds From the Northwest…….

ANOTHER FREEZE OF 25-30 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT………..

ANOTHER 25-30 DEGREE FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT……..

WARMTH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK & GET HERE BY APRIL 10th………….

KEEPING THURSDAY DRY……….
I think Thursday will stay dry & all rain will stay southeast………dew points are low……if there is anything, would likely be virga (evaporating rain before it hits ground due to low dew points) with clouds & sun…………WILL WATCH……..

STRONG STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TORNADO OUTBREAK………….READ FURTHER TO GET DETAILS ON THE EFFECT ON US……….
EASTERN UNITED STATES……………..
1. It appears as of right now……strong low pressure will track from southern Missouri to Terre Haute to Ft. Wayne late Friday-Friday night.
2. This system will likely bring a violent tornado outbreak to parts of the eastern U.S.
3. This outbreak may become a national news story. The current dynamical & instability parameters support 30-40 tornadoes over an 8-state area with many of them violent EF3’s & EF4’s.
4. Personally, I think the Storm Prediction Center will put out a HIGH RISK of severe & tornadoes over parts of the eastern U.S. for late Friday by tomorrow afternoon.
5. With this track, most of the severe storms & 75-80 temps will stay just south of the Valley.
6. The storm should arrive Friday evening & leave by Saturday morning with lingering effects Saturday afternoon in the form of wind & a scattering of chilly rain showers.
THE WABASH VALLEY………………
1. The current low pressure track supports the worst of the outbreak occurring in Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama & eastern Arkansas.
2. Other tornadoes may occur in southern Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, South Carolina, North Carolina, West Virginia, even western Maryland.
3. However, this track also brings a slight tornado threat as far north as Olney, Robinson, Sullivan, Vincennes, Bloomington, Spencer & Washington to Bedford Friday night.
4. The storm track will mean EVERYTHING……………if it shifts 80 miles north & we get into that 75-80 degree warm sector we could get into the outbreak.
5. The current low track means 65-70 with severe threat in our southern counties with 80s & violent tornadoes just south of Indiana.
6. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY……………WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW, NOT ONLY WILL ACHES & PAINS BE COMMON FRIDAY-SATURDAY DUE TO LOWERING PRESSURE, BUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW WILL BRING TORNADOES, IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHERE EXACTLY THEY WILL OCCUR.

MUCH, MUCH COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND…………
1. Gray, gloomy skies with periodic showers & northwest winds to 40 mph will dominate Saturday after a high of 53 in the morning, then 45-50 in the afternoon.
2. Gray, gloomy skies with northwest winds up to 32 mph will dominate Sunday with clearing by evening. Highs will only be 38-43!
3. Clear skies Sunday night & calming winds will result in lows of 23-26, causing some damage to budding & blooming trees. FRUIT GROWERS BEWARE!!!

COOL START TO APRIL……………
1. 50s for highs & 30s for lows will dominate through April 5.
2. April 4 looks like a particularly cold night with lows of 25-30.
3. Largely dry weather will occur during this time.

BIG WARM-UP!!!!!!
1. 70s will return by the 7th & we could see 80 by the 8th!!!!
2. HUGE ridge of high pressure will arrive with 5,000’ temps to 18C, signaling very warm weather!!!!
3. This period through April 12 looks quite dry.
4. Farmers will be in a working/planting frenzy with the warmth & dryness.

POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS FROM SQUALL LINE (See Graphic Above)

Broken squall line will sweep through today just ahead of cold front with damaging wind, hail & isolated tornado threat. The threat will be over by 6 p.m. Eastern Time. Due to its lack of solidity, not everyone will see severe weather, but there will be swaths of wind, some hail cores & an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Another severe threat will exist Tuesday afternoon/evening after a morning complex of rain & t’storms.

SUNDAY A.M. COMPLEX OF RAIN/T’STORMS (See Above Graphic)

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING SQUALL LINE (See Above Graphic)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A.M. COMPLEX OF RAIN/STORMS (See Above Graphic)

TUESDAY LATE SQUALL LINE (See Above Graphic)

RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY (See Above)

SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY (See Above)

SEVERE POTENTIAL TUESDAY (See Above)

CLUSTER OF RAIN/STORMS TONIGHT…..
1. Heavy rain & hail potential exists tonight as cluster of rain/storms passes & lasts into Sunday morning.

BREAK, THEN SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE SUNDAY………
1. Still looks like a lull with some sunshine on Sunday afternoon.
2. Squall line is possible late in the day with main threat being damaging winds between 4 p.m.-11 p.m. (LARGE WINDOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE LINE).

CLUSTER OF RAIN/STORMS MONDAY NIGHT…….
1. Cluster of heavy rain/hail possible Monday night with complex that passes through.

BREAK, THEN SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE TUESDAY……
1. New data is in good agreement that our front is speeding up & will pass through on Tuesday, not Wednesday. This has been a trend over the past 30 hours in the analysis.
2. Still look like a lull with some sunshine Tuesday afternoon.
3. Squall line is possible late in the day. Directional shear is more pronounced with this squall line, so will have to watch isolated tornado threat. Otherwise, main threat damaging straight-line winds.

RIVER FLOODING LIKELY……………
1. Given rainfall of 1.5”-3” likely total through Tuesday, river flooding is likely, especially on the Wabash River.

COLD SNAP INTERRUPTED BY 2 MILD DAYS………
1. Thankfully 2 days of 50s will be sandwhiched in our cold snap.
2. Those 50s look to occur next Saturday & Sunday with rain potential Sunday.
3. Otherwise, highs March 11-17 will be 35-40.